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This Week's Economic Releases

This Week's Economic Releases Mon 10:00 AM New Homes Sales 10:30 AM Dallas Fed Mfg Survey Tues 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders 9:00 AM S&P Case-Schiller HPI 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Wed 10:30 AM EIA Petroleum Status Report 2:00 PM FOMC Meeting Announcement Thurs 8:30 AM GDP 8:30 AM Jobless Claims 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Index Fri 8:30 AM Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index 9:45 AM Chicago PMI 9:55 AM Consumer Sentiment

Jan 27 2014

The bond market rally continued last Friday as investors shed risk in favor of safer assets. This translated to improved pricing on the rate sheet which is a trend we all hope to see continue. It is a very important week this week with several key economic indicators set for release as well as the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. This will be Ben Bernanke’s last major meeting as Fed Chairman and the expectations are that the Fed will continue to reduce their bond buying program at the same pace. Looking ahead at the rest of the day we have New Home Sales at 10:00 AM and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30 AM.

Market update

Stocks are tanking due to poor economic data. Bad news for your investments: offset some losses with lower interest rates on your debt. Mortgage rates hit a 2014 LOW

Jan 24 2014

Bond markets received a boost yesterday as investors moved money away from equities and into safer assets. It was steady gains from the start as weak manufacturing data came out of China which caused a flight to safety and this continued throughout the day as U.S. data was released. Jobless claims met expectations at 326K but Continued Claims came in higher then economist forecast and Existing Home Sales fell short of expectations helping to extend the rally. No econ data is scheduled for release today but we could get some movement as investors position themselves for a big week next week.

Jan 22 2014

There is very little economic data this week but this morning at 7:00 AM we did get MBA Purchase Applications which showed the purchase index down 4.0% week over week and refinance up 10%. No other data is coming out today and investors remained focused on next week’s FOMC meeting. Treasuries fell over night for the second day in a row and MBS markets have opened slightly down with expectations that the Fed will continue to taper off their purchase of bonds. The World Economic Forum kicked off today in Davos and will continue till Saturday with a wide variety of guest speakers scheduled.

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Week of Jan 13th 2014

Economic news is
light today with just the Treasury Budget at 2:00 PM.
Looking at the week ahead there is plenty of econ data
coming our way with Retail Sales, Producer Price
Index, Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Philly
Fed Survey, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production
all scheduled for release later this week.
STAY TUNED!!

MBS Close 1/9/2014

The FNMA 30-YR 3.5% coupon closed +9 BP for the day (Currently 99.656)

Jan 9th 2014

Yesterday we gave back some of the gains from earlier this week as we opened the day down from the previous close. This was a result of ADP employment numbers released yesterday morning which came in better then economist expectations. The FOMC minutes were also released yesterday but this didn’t seem to move the market very much. We close out the week with the Employment Situation report on Friday. Unemployment continues to be a top priority for the Fed and if the employment situation continues to improve this will further support the decision to scale back their bond buying program.

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Thanks

Jan 8th 2014

The MBS market had a good run yesterday after opening with improved pricing and MBS prices continued to improve throughout the day. Mr. Rosengren, President of the Boston Fed, yesterday spoke out about the need for a gradual approach to the scale back of the Fed’s bond buying program and assured investors that “we’re starting to ease off the gas, but we’re nowhere near hitting the brakes yet.” Investors look to gain further insight into Fed policy when the FOMC minutes are released at 2:00 PM. The ADP Employment report was released at 8:15 this morning and the trend of strong economic indicators continues. Economists were expecting private payroll growth of 205,000 and the actual number came in at 238,000.

Jan 7th 2014

Yesterday we had mixed economic data as Factory Orders came in slightly higher then what economists had predicted while the ISM Non-Mfg Index came in below expectations. The market didn’t seem to take notice too much as most investors are much more focused on the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and the Employment numbers on Friday. The biggest news of the day came after hours when Janet Yellen was confirmed by Senate to be the next Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve. When she assumes office on February 1st she will be the first woman to hold the post in the Fed’s 100 year history. Looking at the day ahead, the only major economic release today is International Trade at 8:30 AM which showed a narrowing trade gap.

Jan 6th 2014

Friday was a busy day with several speakers from the Federal Reserve. The markets took notice and we had movement throughout the day before an afternoon re-price for the better. Today there are a couple of economic releases scheduled including Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index both at 10:00 AM. Factory Orders are expected to have a month over month increase of 1.6% and positive growth is also expected from the ISM non-mfg index. Looking at the week ahead, FOMC Minutes will be released Wednesday which could provide further insight into the decision to scale back the Fed’s bond buying program and Friday will be a “Jobs Friday” with the Employment Situation scheduled for an 8:30 AM release.


KEEP WARM CHICAGO!!!

Jan 3 2014

The holiday hangover continued through Monday as trading volume remained light despite the fact that there was plenty of economic data released yesterday. Jobless claims, PMI Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index all showed signs of an improving economy but the bond market reacted very little and we continued to trade in a narrow range. There is not much scheduled for economic news for today but several Fed officials will be making speeches including outgoing Chairman Ben Bernanke who takes the stage at 2:30 PM. Trading levels should get back to normal by Monday with everyone starting to return from the holiday break. Have a good weekend everyone.

Jan 2 2014 HAPPY NEW YEAR

The Bond Market was closed yesterday in celebration of the New Year. Treasure yields were up over night to their highest levels in more than two years on speculation the U.S. economy has improved enough for the Fed to not only taper bond purchases, but also end them in 2014. Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 342,000 last week, after falling the previous two weeks. The manufacturing index dropped to 547.7 last month; that is down from 57.3 in November. Today the Government will announce the size of the next three Treasury actions for the 3-, 10-, and 30-year notes.