The Mortgage Update 9/30/2013

The potential government shut down dominates the headlines this morning. Congress must pass a stop gap by midnight to avoid a shutdown. Stocks are hurting as the deadline nears, however the bond market is benefiting from investors demand for safer assets. Chicago PMI is the only relevant data today and likely overshadowed by headlines and month/quarter end trading today. The jobs report is due out this Friday, however it might be delayed if the government can’t come to an agreement soon.

The Mortgage Update 9/27/2013

Bond markets lost a little ground yesterday with stronger than expected Jobless Claims figures and GDP failed to make a significant statement. Today is light on economic news with Personal Income and Outlays and Consumer Sentiment this morning. The market is up in the pre-trading hours on concern over the Senate vote today on a stopgap spending bill. There is no clear end to the debt ceiling debate and it should remain the forefront of investors’ minds for the weeks to come.

The Mortgage Update 9/26/2013

Mortgage rates continued to improve yesterday, making it the 11th straight day where rates have held steady of moved lower. Data came in as expected yesterday with Durable Goods performing to forecast and lackluster long term stats for New Home Sales creating no reason for the bond market to move. However, dear over a possible government shut down drew investors back to the bond market later in the day. In other mortgage news mortgage applications rose last week, refinancing activity index rose nearly 18 percent, and the FHFA continues their new campaign to educate HARP eligible homeowners about refinancing opportunities.

The Mortgage Update 9/25/2013

Yesterday the MBS market saw slow and steady gains all day. The boost began in the overnight trading hours with weaker than expected economic data out of Germany and the ECB promising ongoing support for the struggling portion of the Eurozone. Consumer Confidence declined according to an afternoon report and light volume in the 10 year Treasuries forced traders to the MBS market late afternoon; pushing the market to new highs. This morning amid speculation the U.S. budget talks are risking a government shutdown has boosted demand for safer assets. New Home Sales will be released at 10 AM today, but the debt ceiling debate is front and center today…

The Mortgage Update 9/24/2013

Today it’s all about confidence, Consumer Confidence. Economists predict confidence fell last month according to a survey. The Case Shiller index of home prices rose 12.4 percent in July from a year earlier. The market for U.S. government debt has yet to react to any potential issues over raising the debt ceiling. That could change today if the government cannot come to an agreement. If the House and Congress don’t agree on something by September 30th the government could shut some of its operations. We will end the day with a 2-year Treasury auction.

The Mortgage Update 9-23-2013

The bond market appeared to settle down late last week after the Fed announced they will not begin tapering this month. Treasuries declined overnight as the U.S. prepares to sell $97 billion of debt over the next three days. Atlanta, New York, and Dallas Fed Presidents will all deliver speeches today. Debate over the federal budget and the debt ceiling resume today on Washington. This week’s economic news has moderate potential to move the market; many investors are waiting for next week NFP numbers to give any indication of the Fed’s next monetary move.

The Mortgage Update 9/20/2013

After one of the largest rallies MBS has seen this year, yesterday mortgage rates moved slightly higher due to low trading volume. Today Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will speak on economic and monetary policy. Kansas City President Esther George will also take the stage at an Open Market Committee meeting. Investors are looking for any hint of future plans to reduce asset purchases. No other economic news on the calendar today...Let’s just hope Ben keeps buying our bonds today so we can ease into the weekend.

The Mortgage Update 9/19/2013

I didn’t see that one coming. In an unexpected turn of events, Ben Bernanke announced yesterday that he will not be tapering bond purchases this month as expected. The Fed stated job growth is not where they would like it to be as the reason for the decision. Bonds rallied on the news, causing a rare re-price for the better. Purchases of previously owned homes fell 2.6 percent in August according to a report due out at 10 AM today. We will see if anyone notices.

This is a chart of what happened yesterday when the FED announced they are not going to TAPER.  What does this mean?  They will continue to buy Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in an effort to keep Mortgage Rates at or near a Historic Low.  This chart is the PRICE of the MBS.  When the price goes "UP" rates come "DOWN" and the opposite is true.  So as you see by the chart, we had a very impressive run up in "price" bringing "rates" down.   For those not familiar with the trend.  This is a BIG move.  So today should be a very good day if you haven't taken the opportunity to take advantage of this opportunity the FED has given you.

The Mortgage Update 9/18/2013

Another month has passed and that means another FOMC announcement. Treasuries were down this morning amid speculation the Fed will announce a reduction in bond purchases. Economists agree the reduction could be to the tune of $10 Billion a month, mostly in Treasuries. Housing starts rose in August according to a Bloomberg survey. Today the market is reliant on Ben Bernanke and his announcement today. However, many believe the “tapper effect” is already priced into the market. We will see today….