Fed ALERT

ALERT!!   7/31/2013 1:03 CST

Fed announced they will continue their $85million monthly bond purchases in an effort to keep interest rates low.  This is great news for those who have still not taken advantage of these historically low rates.  We saw a spike in the price of MBS

The Mortgage Update 7-31-2013

Treasuries are down amid speculation that the Fed may hint on the path for its bond purchases after a policy meeting today. Forecasts expect the U.S GDP to have expanded at a 1 percent pace in April to June versus a 1.8 percent growth rate the previous three months. A survey showed the jobless rates fell to 7.5 percent this month, from 7.6 percent in June before the Labor Department releases its numbers on August 2nd.

The Mortgage Update 7/30/2013

Feeling confident today? The key data point today is consumer confidence and it’s not unreasonable to expect high trade volumes increasing volatility. Economists claim consumer confidence worsened this month, boosting demand for the sagest assets like MBS. Wednesday and Friday have huge potential to move the market. According to top economic analysts, data this week is likely to suggest the economic recovery is weaker than expected, which could mean good news for us.

This Week's Economic Releases

To anyone in the mortgage business or int he process of getting a mortgage this is VALUABLE information

This Week's Economic Releases

Mon
10:00 AM
Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM
Dallas Mfg Survey

Tues
9:00 AM
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
10:00 AM
Consumer Confidence

Wed
8:15 AM
ADP Employment Report
8:30 AM
GDP
8:30 AM
Employment Cost Index

Thurs
8:30 AM
Jobless Claims
8:58 AM
PMI Manufacturing
10:00 AM
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM
Construction Spending
10:00 AM
Construction Spending
10:00 AM
Construction Spending

Fri
8:30 AM
Employment Situation
8:30 AM
Personal Income and Outlays

The Mortgage Update 7-29-2013

HAPPY MONDAY

It was an uneventful end to an uneventful week on Friday. The largest movement was Wednesday prior to Pending Home Sales Report and remarks from President Obama. This morning, treasuries are little changed from Friday’s levels before an industry report will show pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes declined in June. Economists also project the GDP report, due out later this week, will show growth slowed last quarter. There is a lot of economic news this week, which could increase volatility this week. So, buckle up it could be a wild ride…

The Mortgage Update 7-26-2013

Something strange happened yesterday, the bond
market rallied late in the day. An article was released
claiming the Fed will continue to purchase bonds and
support current monetary policy. However, some gains
have been lost overnight ahead of the Consumer
Confidence Report. Economists said the report should
show confidence is higher than initially estimated,
adding to the signs that economic recovery is gaining
momentum.

The Mortgage Update 7-25-2013

Overnight Treasury 10- year yields reached their highest levels in over a week before a government report should show orders for U.S. durable goods increased for a third month in a row. A sell-off in the German Bunds attracted investors away from the MBS market, adding to weak mid day trading levels. The bond market appears to be drifting, keeping rates somewhat stable over the past three days. We will see if we can keep this momentum through today with Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders due out this morning.

The Mortgage Update 7-24-13

No economic news yesterday meant there was little move the market significantly. Overnight 10- Year Treasuries dropped for a second straight day after economic reports out of Europe beat forecasts. Investors took this as a sign that the global economy is recovering and it damped demand for safer assets. Today brings new Home Sales at 10 AM is a relevant report, but should not affect our long term momentum. The day ends with a 5-Year Treasury auction and Jobless claims are released tomorrow.

The Mortgage Update July 23 2013

All was quiet on the bond market yesterday, with no significant economic data moving the needle in either direction. MBS saw an active trading day, modest gains at the open were held until close. Weaker-than-expected Existing Home Sales data caused the slight rally around 10 AM. Today has no significant economic news on the calendar. The next piece of relevant data is scheduled for tomorrow with New Home Sales, PMI Manufacturing and Petroleum Status Report.

The Mortgage Update 7-22-2013

The bond market might have just hit its stride, finding some stability for the first time in this post FOMC announcement era. This week is front loaded with several Housing Market metrics to be released. We will start the day with Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales on Wednesday. Both numbers are expected to show improvement. Existing Home Sales rose from 5.18 to 5.26 million while New Home Sales are expected to increase from 476k to a 485k annual pace. We will close the week with jobless claims and consumer sentiment. Let’s see if we can keep our pace this week before Non-Farm Payrolls are announced next week

The Mortgage Update

Treasuries advanced over night as Ben Bernanke quelled any fears of QE coming to an unexpected end in September. Philly Fed came in much better than expected yesterday however; it failed to move the market significantly in the afternoon trading hours. There is no scheduled economic data today, meaning we might see a quite day for once.

Have a Great weekend!!

The Mortgage Update

Rates improved yesterday before Bernanke took the stage. The rally was caused by the Housing Starts report which underperformed compared to the forecast. Bernanke still remained unclear about the Fed’s plan to tapper bond purchases and the Q & A session did little to reverse the positive feeling in the bond market. Today Jobless Claims come out at 8:30 and Philly Fed at 10 AM will be the last piece of economic news released this week.

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The Mortgage Update

Mortgage Rates are perfectly flat before Ben Bernanke takes the stage today. There appears to be significant divergence of opinions with FOMC members, leaving the content in today’s testimony unclear. This uncertainty has the potential to create more market volatility today. Bernanke’s speaks at 10 AM, the beige book is to be released at 2 PM, and what will happen in between is anyone’s guess.

The Mortgage Update

Treasuries rose yesterday after the lower than
expected retail sales report, and continued to open
higher this morning. We then gave back some of this
mornings gains following the CPI report, which showed
that cost of living in the US rose in June. The big news
of the week will be Bernanke's two-day testimony
which is set to kick off tomorrow.

This Week's Economic Releases

Mon

8:30 AM

Retail Sales

8:30 AM

Empire Manufacturing Survey

Tues

8:30 AM

Consumer Price Index

9:15 AM

Industrial Production

Wed

8:30 AM

Housing Starts

2:00 PM

Beige Book

Thurs

8:30 AM

Jobless Claims

10:00 AM

Philly Fed Survey

The Mortgage Update

Lots of economic news on the schedule this week, which means we might see more market volatility. Treasuries fell this morning before economists forecast U.S. Retail Sales Increased while inflation held in check. The headlining event this week, is Ben Bernanke when he will deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on July 17-18 in Washington. But, those are worries for another day. Today we will watch and see if economic growth meets policy marker’s goals and contemplate our favorite word—tapering.

The Mortgage Update

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The Mortgage Update

Treasuries rose for a fifth day after Ben Bernanke signaled the central bank will need to keep buying bonds for the foreseeable future. Treasuries auctions this week suggest demand for safer assets is increasing, which could be good news for the mortgage markets as well. It’s a slower news day with Producer Price Index due out at 8:30 and Consumer Sentiment at 9:55. Forecasts suggest PPI will increase .5% and Consumer Sentiment Index will remain unchanged from June. Let’s see if we can sustain this rally into the weekend.

The Mortgage Update

Yesterday it looked like the MBS market was going to another rough day prior to the FOMC minutes being released; let’s call it the ‘Bernanke effect.” However, when he took the stage later in the day, he appeared to be bullish on the bond market. He stated the unemployment rate overstated the health of the economy and asset purchases are not having a significant impact on supply and demand of safe assets. Did you hear that bond market? Calm down. Today is another jobless day, with Initial Jobless Claims released at 8:30. Let’s see if we can sustain this nice little rally we have going on…

The Mortgage Update

Mortgages are fairly flat this morning as we lead into
the FOMC Minutes to be released later this afternoon
at 2PM. Typically, the market will scrutinize every single
word of the document to look for clues on the next
move the Fed will make, and speculation is still running
rampant that they will be cutting their bond purchases
in the near future. The language in today's meeting
minutes could provide further indication of this, which
ultimately could be bad for bond prices. Guess we will
all get our popcorn popped and ready for the show at 2.

The Mortgage Update

Just thought you may find this interesting:   Rates have spiked up from their lows.  However, the current rate is back in line with the 3 year average.  If you missed the bottom, it is still a great time to refinance and a FANTASTIC time to BUY!!

The Mortgage Update

Mortgage rates rebounded yesterday, regaining a third of the ground lost on Friday. It was the third biggest move of the year. The economic calendar remains bare today. A 3-year Treasury auction is scheduled for this afternoon. However, all eyes are on the big event, the FOMC minutes to be released tomorrow. Depending on the rhetoric we could be in for another wild ride…

The Mortgage Update

Friday saw a historic market move, increasing rates higher, which was a direct effect of a stronger-than-expected Employment Situation Report. This report not only showed June job creation was better than expected, but revised the last two months into stronger territory as well. Most investors saw this as a profound indirect consideration to future Fed policy. There is no economic news to be released today or tomorrow. FOMC minutes are the market mover this week, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Update

Let’s get this party started, shall we? Treasuries declined in the early morning hours before a report economists predict will show U.S. employers increased hiring in June and jobless rates fell. These key economic indicators suggest the economy is recovering; adding speculation that the Fed will start to tapper QE as soon as September. Remember, this potential reduction, or tapering, accounts for most of the recent market volatility. There is an 800-lb gorilla in the room and its name is the Employment Situation Report…it arrived and it wasn't pretty for the bond market.

The Mortgage Update

Nothing happened yesterday. Weak trading levels tempered any rally in the market. Overnight, 10-year notes rose for a third day as investors sought safer assets after two of Portugal’s ministers resigned from the government, reigniting concern the European debt crisis is worsening. Today investors may start to adjust their position pre-NFP report, which is due out on Friday. Market closes early today and no school tomorrow! Happy 4th of July .

The Mortgage Update

It was a quiet day for the bond market yesterday. Weak manufacturing reports caused a slight rally and consequently a re-price for the better. Intraday volatility was caused by month end trades, however low volume kept the market steady. Treasuries rose for the second day amid speculation the Fed will announce today they are moving away from the tapering of bond purchases. It’s a light economic news day with Factory Orders released later this morning.

The Mortgage Update

Treasuries fell for a second day as economists predict strong manufacturing reports today. The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 50.5 last month up from 49 in May. A report reading 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction. U.S. employers added 165,000 workers last month after hiring 175,000 in May. Official hiring numbers will be reported on July 5th. It’s a short week with the markets closed on Thursday, so let’s make every day count this week.