The Mortgage Update 10/31/2012

Yesterday MBS traded at its highest levels of the week. ADP employment numbers helped rates in the morning; however the FOMC announcement failed to define a timeline for tapering causing a re-price for the worse in the afternoon. Today Jobless Claims and Chicago PMI are released. Month end trading could cause late day volatility as investors firm up their books before heading out to trick or treat

The Mortgage Update 10/30/2013

Mortgage rates continue to hold around the 4% while Treasuries lost ground over night, despite the fact Consumer Confidence was weaker than expected. Today is another big day for economic news. Analysts predict U.S. companies added few workers this month, which could give the market a boost today. GDP is announced at 8:30; investors will be looking at this for inflation concerns. Federal Reserve policy makers end a two-day meeting today as well. Bernanke should announce their plan to maintain their bond purchase programs through March of next year at 2 PM.

The Mortgage Update 10/25/2013

All was quiet in the bond market yesterday. Economic data failed to move the market and weak trading levels didn’t help us out either. Most traders are waiting for next week’s month end trading and FOMC Announcement. Today Durable Goods, Consumer Sentiment and Wholesale inventories are set to be released. Although Durable goods orders increased 2.3 percent in September, the biggest gain since June, it shouldn’t have much effect on the market. Let’s see if we can just ease into the weekend, shall we?

The Mortgage Update 10/24/2013

Mortgage Rates improved slightly yesterday, but faded n the afternoon trading hours. With no economic news released yesterday trading levels defined the market movements. Today Jobless Claims and New Home Sales are the main economic drivers in the Bond Market. Reports should show the partial government shutdown cost the U.S. 120,000 jobs in October and trimmed .25 percentage points from the 4th quarter economic growth. Our Rally will be tested today, let’s see if we can maintain it….

The Mortgage Update 10/23/2013

Mortgage rates improved quickly yesterday after a surprising Jobs Report was released. Economists had predicted job growth had improved, however the actual employment numbers were weaker than expected. Overnight Treasuries rose for a second straight day on speculation the Fed will delay plans to begin tapering. Today data should show monthly improvements in import price and housing cost indices. The market volatility index is the lowest it has been since May; let’s see if we can maintain yesterday’s gains in the market

The Mortgage Update 10/22/2013

Not much change yesterday in the MBS markets as volume remained light. Investors focus has been on the Jobs Report that will be released today at 8:30 AM. This report was due to be released on October 4th but was pushed back due to the government shutdown. The report is on the September employment situation and was almost ready for release when the government shutdown started. This report will receive special attention because of the lack of economic data that has come out recently. The report fell well below expectations and this has caused a MBS market rally. This will also be the first and hopefully only time that this report will not be released on a Friday so gear up for Jobs Tuesday!

The Mortgage Update 10/21/213

Friday was a quiet day for the Bond Market with no Fed speakers or economic news released. Overnight Treasuries snapped a 3 day gain before the delayed Jobs Report is released tomorrow. Economists predict the report will show U.S. employers added the most jobs since April last month and durable goods orders climbed. Yields rose from their lowest levels since July amid signs the economy is finally gathering momentum. Today Existing Home Sales Report is due at 10 AM, sales fell in September. With the government back in action we will finally get some meaningful economic data and that could mean more volatility for the market.

The Mortgage Update 10/18/2013

Yesterday the market rallied yet again with the government finally reaching a short term deal to end the shutdown. Short term lending rates quickly improved, causing a sustained spike in the MBS market as well. Three FOMC speakers took the stage yesterday claiming the Fed should hold off on tapering bond purchases until economic conditions improve. There is no economic news released today. The next big report will be the Employment Situation Report which is rescheduled to be released on Tuesday.

The Mortgage Update 10/17/203

It’s over…for now. President Obama signed a deal late last night to end the partial government shutdown. The market recovered all morning losses causing a re-price for the better. Investors flooded back to the market bringing trading levels back to normal. Adding to the rally were comments in the Fed’s Beige Book that stated, “the economy grew at a modest to moderate pace.” This suggests tapering will be delayed until the first quarter of 2014. Initial Jobless Claims will be out at 8:30, which is expected to show a decline from the previous month. 10 AM the October Philly Fed and Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey will be released.

The Mortgage Update 10 16 2013

Mortgage rates increased slightly yesterday as hesitant investors wait for news regarding the government shutdown. Trading volumes are 75% of the 30-day moving average showing the direct impact the political uncertainty has on the MBS market. Mortgage applications remain flat week over week while home purchases dip a report will state today. The Debt Ceiling deadline is now just hours away while we all sit and watch the showdown unfold. Today the MBA reports on Mortgage Applications, multiple Fed speakers will take the stage today and the Beige Book will be released at 2 PM.

The Mortgage Update 10/14/2013

Mortgage rates remained flat to worse Friday. The market saw more volatility than the previous week, however any potential long term moves hinge on the government reopening for business. Investors are eager to see the employment report compiled prior to the shut down, however it still has not been released. Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 8 PM today while no other economic news scheduled. Thursday is the big news days with Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey still scheduled to be released.

The Mortgage Update 10/11/2013

It was a rough start in the morning yesterday but a rally in the afternoon helped turn us in the right direction. The turnaround was caused by a better than expected 30 yr treasury auction as well as public comments by multiple Fed. officials stating they did not expect any taper of the QE program before the end of the year. This momentum has carried through this morning with a strong opening in the MBS market. If this holds through the day then we should have favorable pricing through the weekend.

The Mortgage Update 10/9/2013

The big news late yesterday was that President Obama is expected to officially nominate Janet Yellen today to succeed Bernanke as head of the Federal Reserve after he steps down in January. It is expected that her appointment would mean that the Fed would continue to keep rates low in the short-run. The FOMC minutes from September will be released today at 2PM EST, which will provide further details about the direction the Fed is heading with its current bond buying program.

The Mortgage Update 10/8/2013

It was a volatile day yesterday in the MBS markets as
we rallied in the morning before selling off in the
afternoon. The morning rally was the result of investors
pulling money out of the equity market and bonds were
the benefactor, however those gains were erased by an
afternoon sell off. This was believed to be caused by an
article released that suggested President Obama may
be leaning towards selecting Donald Kohn as the next
Federal Reserve Chairman. Donald Kohn is perceived
to be more hawkish and therefore more likely to scale
back the Fed’s bond buying program than the
perceived frontrunner Janet Yellen. No immediate
decision is expected by Mr. Obama but investors will be
paying close attention to any indication about what
direction he may be leaning.

The Mortgage Update 10/7/2013

Bonds are poised to open up this morning as the US government is moving into the second week of a shutdown with no end in sight. Although concerns over the budget and debt ceiling continue to weigh on sentiment, the drop in both yields and volatility in Treasuries is a sign that investor confidence in a resolution is outweighing worry over the current situation. With many of the economic releases delayed, the key event of the week will be the release of the September's FOMC minutes where the Fed surprised most everyone by not tapering.

The Mortgage Update 10/4/2013

It appears the markets are more interested in the Employment Situation Report than the government shutdown. Too bad, the Employment Report will not be released today, due to the shutdown. That put more emphasis on ISM Data that had both stocks and bonds moving lower. In the afternoon the Dow broke through a technical trading level, below 1500 causing investors to run to the bond market. What will happen today is anyone’s guess…

The Mortgage Update 10/3/2013

The bond market began the day close to Tuesday’s latest levels, but rally slightly after the ADP Employment Report was released. The report missed forecast by over 20K jobs, due to a decrease in service industries in September; however it was not enough to sustain the positive momentum. Overnight, Washington failed to come to an agreement prolonging the government shut down with no end in sight. Initial Jobless claims increased by 10,000 last week according to the Bloomberg report, we will see if that is enough to move the market in our favor today.