Nov 29 2013

The market was closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday after a sell off caused a late afternoon re-price Wednesday. Economic data consistently over performed to forecast dominating the bond market headlines. Treasuries fell overnight extending their first monthly loss since August. This move is based on speculation a U.S. jobs report due out next week will be strong enough to question the Federal Reserve’s bond buying program. Today is light on economic data; however we might see some unexpected market movements due to month end trading activity.

Nov 19 2013

Yesterday MBS went higher and tighter causing a re-price for the better. Origination was down and demand was strong, causing prices to improve mid day. Today U.S. Retail Sales rose .1 percent in October from September. The Fed Speakers just keep on coming with the Chicago Fed President Evans speaking at 2:15 P.M. and Big Ben takes the stage at 7 P.M tonight at the National Economists Club in Washington D.C. The FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow and investors are looking for any indication of future economic policy. Many believe it will be March of 2014; others are convinced December is not yet off the table.

Nov 15 2013

Stock and bonds both love Janet! Markets were up following Yellen’s confirmation hearing. However, Treasuries declined over night, after a two day gain. This move is before reports economists predict will show manufacturing grew at a faster pace than last month. Industrial production also expanded for the second month in a row, showing the economy is gaining momentum. This could add to market volatility today. Hopefully, we can head into the weekend holding onto the gains we made this week.

Nov 14 2013

The bond market is doing it for itself! A late day rally caused a much needed re-price for the better. There were no significant events that the improvement, but we will take it. Initial jobless claims declined to 330,000 last week from 336,000 the previous week. This may have investors questioning the Fed’s taper timeline. Europe might give us a boost this morning as headlines claim their economic recovery is faltering. This is on news the GDP for the Eurozone rose less than expected. Hopefully the market will remain positive today as Janet Yellen takes the stand for her confirmation hearing.

Nov 13 2013

Rates moved higher yesterday for no good reason, other than continued momentum from Friday’s strong Employment Report. We need a strong piece of economic data to reverse the trend; however the calendar is empty today. Treasuries rallied over night before Janet Yellen faces a confirmation hearing tomorrow. She will also defend the monetary stimulus plan already in place. Policy makers have stated that interest rates will remain low as long as inflation stays below 2.5 percent and unemployment remains above 6.5 percent. The jobless rate was 7.3 percent last month, making tomorrow’s Jobless Claims report the most important number of the week. Maybe it will give us the push we need to lower our rates.

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The Mortgage Update 11/7/2013

Yesterday was a slow day in the bond market with no economic news moving the needle in either direction. Today GDP and jobless claims are released at 8:30. GDP has the opportunity to step up to the plate and help us out today. If GDP shows the economy was hurt by the government shut down we could see rate improve, however if it shoes economic expansion we could see a sell off. Similarly, Jobless Claims data should show hiring improved last month. If it fails to meet expectations volatility could increase today. Tomorrow is the big day with another Employment Situation Report due out. Who doesn’t love a Jobs Friday?

The Mortgage Update 11/6/2013

The market sold off yesterday after the ISM Manufacturing Index was released. This adds to the concern that the Fed will begin to taper asset purchases sooner than expected. The next big piece of economic data that could move the market is Thursday, both GDP and Jobless Claims are announced. Economists are forecasting that expansion and hiring slowed this month. Those delayed reports and concerns over the ECB policy expectations; investors will be cautious in the bond market. Volatility will be the name of the game later this week…

The Mortgage Update 11/5/2013

The bond market was quiet yesterday with no economic news moving the needle. Buyers still outnumber the sellers in the market with origination continuing to decline. ISM Non-manufacturing report will be released at 10 AM; this is the only key piece of economic data before the Employment Situation Report due out on Friday. Investors are waiting for data to show the effects of the government shut down, we have not seen any yet. If a report underperforms to forecast it could move the market today, hopefully in our favor…

The Mortgage Update 11/4/2013

Mortgage rates inched higher on Friday following stronger than expected economic data. Manufacturing Reports suggest the economy is picking up steam, making investors question the Fed’s future economic policy. Federal Bank voting members Eric Rosengren and Richard Fisher will be speaking today advocating the Fed trim asset purchases. This could put pressure on rates today. This week starts off with Factory Orders followed by Jobless Claims on Thursday. We will close the week with another Employment Situation Report on Friday.

The Mortgage Update 11/1/2013

Just after pricing was set yesterday, we re-priced for the worse. The cause was a unexpected strong piece of economic data that showed business activity increased at a faster pace than economists estimated. This morning Treasuries declined over night before a report should show today that manufacturing expanded for a fifth month, weakening the case for the Fed to maintain their bond purchases. Good economic news has many wondering if a December tapper is still on the table..we will have to wait and see.