The Mortgage Update 9-17-2013

The bond market rallied hard on news Larry Summers was no longer a candidate for the next Fed Chairman. However, after the dust settled we lost all morning gains by the end of the day. Treasuries advanced for a fifth day, the longest winning streak in almost a year. Consumer Price Gains have decreased to 1.6 percent in 2013. The trade volumes finally picked up yesterday ahead of the Fed taking the stage tomorrow. All eyes are on Ben Bernanke and his announcement tomorrow. Will they taper? If so, how much? We are all guessing…until tomorrow.

The Mortgage Update 9/16/2013

This could get interesting. Friday, the bond market remained flat for most of the day. Despite strong trading levels, no economic news moved the needle. This week we start the week with industrial manufacturing news and housing market index. However, the main announcement is Wednesday when Ben Bernanke takes the stage again to discuss the FOMC’s September meeting. Surprisingly, late Sunday Larry Summers, the heir apparent to replace Bernanke, pulled out of the running. Stocks rallied over night over the news.

The Mortgage Update 9-13-2013

Today is the last big economic news day before the FOMC announcement next week. The Jobs report out yesterday reportedly left the FOMC divided on asset tapering plans. Today producer prices, retail sales, and consumer sentiment are all released today at 8:30. Investors are left wondering what the Fed will announce next week; you can tell by the trading patterns that are moving more quickly between highs and lows. Many analysts are optimistic stating the Fed’s withdrawal from the market is already priced into today’s rates. Hopefully, they are right…

The Mortgage update 9/12/2013

Yesterday rates opened in line with Tuesday’s levels.
The market got the jitters around the 10-year Treasury
auction, but rallied back to the stronger trading levels of
the day after the auction. Most investors are playing it
safe until the majority of economic data is released
today and tomorrow. Economists predict the number of
Americans claiming initial jobless benefits increased,
signaling the economic recovery is not yet fully realized.

The Mortgage Update 9/11/2013

Treasuries rose yesterday, snapping a three day decline, before reports today should show U.S. jobless claims increased last week. Initial jobless claims increased by 7,000. Economists believe this will damped the Fed’s plan to withdraw stimulus money. However, weak employment numbers might not be enough to change Big Ben’s mind. The Retail Sales numbers, to be released Friday, would also have to come in weak before the FOMC meeting next week. Focus today is not when the Fed will taper, but how much they will taper. The size of the taper matters as does the composition. Economists believe the Fed will reduce Treasury purchases and sustain the MBS purchases. That could mean good news for us!

The Mortgage Update 9/10/2013

Yesterday was a calm day for the bond market with no economic news released. Today is similarly void of economic announcements. However, market risk might be the driver of MBS prices today. The situation in Syria continues to plague the region. Congress is not opposed to military action, however President Obama continues to rally support from the American population. Fiscal policy discussions start again today, topics on the agenda include replacing Big Ben, the debt ceiling, and the asset reduction plan that the Fed should announce next week.

The Mortgage Update 9/9/2013

Treasuries rose overnight on speculation that economic news this week will add evidence that the economy is still struggling to expand, weakening the case for tapering. Later this week reports will show U.S. import prices rose .7 percent in August, Producer Prices gained 1.3 percent last month, and U.S. Retail Sales rose again. The addition of 169,000 workers in August trailed the 180,000 median forecast according to an economist survey to be released on Thursday. Finally, Congress is back in session today and all eyes are on Syria. President Obama will plead his case to the American people this week to gather support for a limited military attack while policy makers debate on Capital Hill.