The Mortgage Update 9-13-2013

Today is the last big economic news day before the FOMC announcement next week. The Jobs report out yesterday reportedly left the FOMC divided on asset tapering plans. Today producer prices, retail sales, and consumer sentiment are all released today at 8:30. Investors are left wondering what the Fed will announce next week; you can tell by the trading patterns that are moving more quickly between highs and lows. Many analysts are optimistic stating the Fed’s withdrawal from the market is already priced into today’s rates. Hopefully, they are right…

The Mortgage update 9/12/2013

Yesterday rates opened in line with Tuesday’s levels.
The market got the jitters around the 10-year Treasury
auction, but rallied back to the stronger trading levels of
the day after the auction. Most investors are playing it
safe until the majority of economic data is released
today and tomorrow. Economists predict the number of
Americans claiming initial jobless benefits increased,
signaling the economic recovery is not yet fully realized.

The Mortgage Update 9/11/2013

Treasuries rose yesterday, snapping a three day decline, before reports today should show U.S. jobless claims increased last week. Initial jobless claims increased by 7,000. Economists believe this will damped the Fed’s plan to withdraw stimulus money. However, weak employment numbers might not be enough to change Big Ben’s mind. The Retail Sales numbers, to be released Friday, would also have to come in weak before the FOMC meeting next week. Focus today is not when the Fed will taper, but how much they will taper. The size of the taper matters as does the composition. Economists believe the Fed will reduce Treasury purchases and sustain the MBS purchases. That could mean good news for us!

The Mortgage Update 9/10/2013

Yesterday was a calm day for the bond market with no economic news released. Today is similarly void of economic announcements. However, market risk might be the driver of MBS prices today. The situation in Syria continues to plague the region. Congress is not opposed to military action, however President Obama continues to rally support from the American population. Fiscal policy discussions start again today, topics on the agenda include replacing Big Ben, the debt ceiling, and the asset reduction plan that the Fed should announce next week.

The Mortgage Update 9/9/2013

Treasuries rose overnight on speculation that economic news this week will add evidence that the economy is still struggling to expand, weakening the case for tapering. Later this week reports will show U.S. import prices rose .7 percent in August, Producer Prices gained 1.3 percent last month, and U.S. Retail Sales rose again. The addition of 169,000 workers in August trailed the 180,000 median forecast according to an economist survey to be released on Thursday. Finally, Congress is back in session today and all eyes are on Syria. President Obama will plead his case to the American people this week to gather support for a limited military attack while policy makers debate on Capital Hill.

The Mortgage Update 9-6-2013

Live from New York, it's Jobs Friday! Mortgage rates hit a 2-year high yesterday ahead for today’s jobs report. Strong economic data suggested today’s report should be similarly strong. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen 180,000 in August while the unemployment rate should hold steady at 7.4 percent. This data could give the Fed the green light to taper away. Hopefully, the late day sell-off has already priced this into the market.

The Mortgage Update 9/5/2013

Mortgage rate moved higher still yesterday. Investors pulled their money out of mutual funds, which invest in bonds and MBS, causing bond prices to fall and rates to increase. The San Francisco Federal Bank President claimed the economy was improving, just at a slow and moderate pace. His remarks, supporting Federal Bond tapering caused a slight jump in the market yesterday. Today starts two big economic news days. Jobless claims will be released today; economists forecast layoffs jumped to 34% in August. Hopefully, this will be enough to cause a rally in the market today. Once again, all eyes will be on Syria and the political unrest in the region. Busy day…